Last December our MLS held a kick-off event to welcome a new tourist season. I recall the president being very motivational but he admitted that until the hotels all re-opened that we were likely to be experiencing an 18-month summer. Meaning that as glad as we all were to have survived Odile and how proud we were of our city’s recovery efforts that without hotels there are no tourists… and no buyers to speak of. Well, we’re now half-way through the year, and although many hotels have re-opened we’re still waiting on the stragglers. So, how bad is that 18-month summer? And what has the real estate industry managed to achieve with, for all intents and purposes, one hand tied behind our backs? Here is a snap-shot of the industry; the data was taken from our Multiple Listing System on July 1, 2015. And the snap-shot is really quite interesting.

Before I start boring you with all the statistics let me make a few good, old-fashioned disclaimers. Our MLS, FLEX MLS based in Fargo, North Dakota makes every effort to provide reliable information but there is a phenomenon known as “Agent Input Error”. So although we know the numbers aren’t completely accurate they’re the best we’ve got and in general are good enough to indicate trends.

The MLS is statewide. Because my area of interest is Los Cabos I eliminated any data outside the limits of Cabo San Lucas and San Jose proper and the corridor. And the categories I looked at excluded any commercial properties, limiting myself to single family homes, condominiums, and land. Lastly, when I mention price I’m talking about the actual sales price in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. So on to look at what happened in my real estate market in 2015 so far….

Here is the data on Dollar Volume of Sales:

Zone Sold 2013 Sold 2014 Sold Q1 & 2 ‘15
Cabo Corridor $51,992,326 $62,891,741 $36,321,415
Cabo San Lucas $45,659,093 $53,391,093 $12,726,885
SJ Corridor $98,905,510 $115,150,510 $33,832,500
San Jose $46,399,126 $59,171,626 $15,096,687
Total $242,956,055 $290,604,970 $97,977,487

And here is the data on Median Sold Cost:

Zone 2013 2014 % Change 2015 Q1&2 % Change
Cabo Corridor $224,038 $265,000 +18 278,000 +4
Cabo San Lucas $260,000 $250,000 – 4 175,000 -30
SJ Corridor $1,075,000 $1,037,500 – 4 460,000 -56
San Jose $230,000 $227,500 – 2 330,000 +45
Total $289,000 $289,308 +/- 0 288,500 -1

All the above numbers are aggregate, all types lumped together. But was there any difference between types? Are condos moving faster than single family? Is the market for building lots still dead?  To find out, I broke up the categories, again by zone.

Lots 2015 TYD
Zone # Sold Volume Sold Median Price Low Price High Price
Cabo Corridor 3 $1,705,000 $400,000 $55,000 $1,250,000
Cabo San Lucas 13 $1,875,925 $83,500 $27,000 $415,000
San Jose Corridor 5 $21,230,000 $480,000 $100,000 $13,100,000
San Jose del Cabo 5 $832,000 $120,000 $96,000 $376,000
Total 26 $25,642,925 $120,000 $27,000 $13,100,000
Condos 2015 TYD
Zone # Sold Volume Sold Median Price Low Price High Price
Cabo Corridor 35 $9,807,500 $239,000 $110,000 $1,150,000
Cabo San Lucas 15 $7,471,860 $267,500 $89,000 $2,300,000
San Jose Corridor 11 $4,276,500 $295,000 $145,000 $700,000
San Jose del Cabo 19 $6,269,000 $240,000 $295,000 $950,000
Total 80 $27,824,860 $255,000 $89,000 $2,300,000
|Houses 2015 TYD
Zone # Sold Volume Sold Median Price Low Price High Price
Cabo Corridor 60 $24,808,915 $321,250 $79,000 $1,618,000
Cabo San Lucas 9 $3,379,100 $250,000 $60,350 $995,000
San Jose Corridor 9 $8,326,000 $875,000 $89,000 $2,000,000
San Jose del Cabo 18 $7,995,687 $457,472 $44,500 $1,400,000
Total 96 $44,509,702 $350,000 $44,500 $2,000,000

It’s odd that San Jose has long had the reputation for being more affordable than Cabo San Lucas, yet the median home price there is nearly twice that of San Lucas. Clearly, just as in 2014, the Cabo Corridor is where the action is. While the Corridor has its share of high-end homes with more being built every day it is also home to some of the best affordable houses. This area is a favorite with retirees as well as full time working residents and far out-performed any other of the areas studied.

Another interesting number is closed sales to listing volume which is currently at 87%, which I believe to indicate a market moving toward equilibrium.

Last, for sellers. Even with the rising market it would be wise to allow at least a year to get it sold. The calculation for this is thrown off by certain developers (wouldn’t you know it, the most successful ones) who do not put their inventory on the system until the day the sale is closed. This throws off the calculations tremendously. And, provided you are priced even close to realistically, expect to get about 90% of your asking price.

There is much more data in the reports that I could share but then I’d be writing a book and not a blog. If you’d like more information on your community please just contact me and I’ll be glad to share.

Carol Billups is Broker/Owner of Cabo Realty Pros. She has enjoyed working with both buyers and sellers for over fourteen years and still thinks hers is the best job on earth. She is also the real estate columnist for Los Cabos Magazine. You can read more of her articles on the website blog  You can reach her from the U.S. or Canada at 1-760-481-7694, or in Cabo at 044-624-147-7541. You can listen to our 24/7 broadcast on for a mix of happy music, weather reports and local information.

© 2015 Carol S. Billups

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